Was the Nord Stream 2 Rupture an Accidental Catalyst?

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While digging through mountains of Nord Stream data as part of my series debunking Seymour Hersh’s claims of a top secret US-Norwegian mission to destroy the Nord Stream pipelines during BATLOPS22, I discovered some information that may provide an alternative theory.

I will preface this by stating that this is still solely a theory, but I will continue to work on finding more information that may or may not be able to shed more light on everything.

Since September, the single Nord Stream 2 explosion 80km away from the two following Nord Stream 1 blasts has puzzled me. Not only was it 80km away from the other blasts, it happened 17 hours prior at 02:03 local time on September 26th.

I have continuously been looking for a possible explanation for this, and I may have found one while staring at AIS data on MarineTraffic. In December 2019 the pipelaying vessel, Pioneering Spirit, was laying the pipe for line A of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline near Bornholm.

MarineTraffic AIS data of Pioneering Spirit laying pipe for Nord Stream 2 in December 2019

For this almost month long endeavor from November 26th 2019 to December 21st 2019, the entirety of the AIS track was consistent and smooth, with no deviations. The ship slowly moved south-west laying down pipe slowly but consistently.

MarineTraffic AIS track of Pioneering Spirit

There was one exception to this though. On December 15th, the Pioneering Spirit deviated from its steady track and began drifting. It stayed at this location for approximately 20 hours before resuming its pipelaying operation. The location where this happened was 50 meters away from the September 26th 2022 Nord Stream 2 leak.

MarineTraffic AIS track of Pioneering Spirit deviating from its normal course directly over the location of the NS2 leak

Further investigation shows that a storm hit the area off Bornholm during this time period explaining why the ship was forced to stop its work and remain stationary for almost an entire day.

Weather near Bornholm on December 15th 2019

This brings me to my current working theory. It was in no party’s interests to destroy 3 of the 4 Nord Stream lines. It can be argued that the US/NATO had motivation to destroy all 4 lines. At the same time it can be argued that Russia had motivation to blow NS1, but not NS2. The destruction of 3 was always a mystery.

I believe explosives were planted on the two lines of Nord Stream 1, possibly by the Minerva Julie. This ship had a very strange track directly above the location of the NS1 explosions from the 5th September to 13th September while on route to Saint Petersburg. This was also directly after Russia cut gas supplies through Nord Stream 1 on August 31st 2022. The Minerva Julie left Rotterdam on September 1st.

MarineTraffic AIS track of Minerva Julie

I theorize that the initial Nord Stream 2 rupture was an accident, potentially the result of a poor weld or other defect that occurred during the laying of the pipe in 2019, just as the storm hit the Pioneering Spirit.

Once this pipe had ruptured, the remaining pipes would probably be inspected revealing the explosives planted on the Nord Stream 1 pipes. Due to this the plan to potentially destroy Nord Stream 1 in the future was accelerated and the explosives were detonated 17 hours after the initial rupture at 19:03 local time.

Destroying Nord Stream 1 would allow Russia to increase pressure on Germany, while at the same time not being a massive loss, as they stated that it was “out of commission”. Russia had stated that the decreased flow and eventual shutdown of Nord Stream 1 was caused by European Union sanctions against Russia, which had resulted in technical problems they could not remedy.

This would leave the operational, but never opened Nord Stream 2 available to supply Germany with natural gas immediately after the shock of the destruction of Nord Stream 1. This is something Putin still offered Germany through the one remaining Nord Stream 2 line. Germany turned down the offer.

I believe that the charges were in place on Nord Stream 1, hoping for Germany and Europe to be in a more dire situation during the winter. They would then be blown in an attempt to pressure Europe to give up on Ukraine.

Additionally, only the Swedish government has publicly confirmed finding explosive residue on the debris found at the sites of the Nord Stream explosions. There has been no public mention of Denmark finding explosive residue at the NS2 site.

from Hacker News https://ift.tt/nsW7PYE