World to hit temperature tipping point 10 years faster than forecast

The modelling is set to generate a fresh wave of alarming global headlines and will intensify calls on the world’s biggest emitters to ramp up efforts at decarbonising the global economy at the UN’s Glasgow climate summit in November.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and push for efforts to hold it to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Amid mounting pressure from allies across Europe and the US to commit to net zero by 2050, the Morrison government is expected to seize on the IPCC’s findings as a call for more immediate action using technologies such as carbon capture, “blue” hydrogen and energy storage.

It will insist that rather than making distant promises for what will happen mid-century, the IPCC’s revised 1.5 degrees Celsius timetable makes it imperative countries take action now to reduce emissions in the current decade.

The IPCC modelling is also expected to underscore that the more the world emits in the 2020s, the more likely the planet will need to reach for cutting-edge and potentially costly strategies such as so-called “direct air capture”, in order to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.

Energy and Emissions Minister Angus Taylor told a meeting in Italy of Group of 20 environment ministers last month that the collective focus needs to be on driving down the cost of new and emerging technologies.

“We need to ensure that new, low-emissions energy sources achieve technical and commercial parity – or better – with incumbent technologies as soon as possible,” he said.

“This is the key to widespread global adoption, to maintaining energy affordability and reliability, and to delivering strong economic growth at the same time as we reduce global emissions.

“This is the key to making net zero practically achievable for all countries.”

The IPCC report will come after an attempt failed late on Wednesday by Labor to block the government from expanding the remit of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) to enable it to invest in carbon capture and storage.

The result was welcomed by gas and coal companies, but the government believes the technology has a far wider relevance to the climate policy debate.

The Morrison government points to the fact that the use of such technologies – which are opposed by green groups – are already embedded in major climate models issued by the International Energy Agency as well as the IPCC.

Monday’s IPCC report is expected to detail a rapid surge in emissions across developing economies, which means that even if the rest of the world gets to net zero by 2050, there will still need to be some level of “negative emissions” to bring the total level of carbon down and stabilise warming effects.

Climate change behind disasters

Nearly 4000 pages long, the IPCC’s report comes hot on the heels of a surge in devastating natural disasters in recent years.

For the first time the report’s more than 230 authors – who have reviewed more than 14,000 scientific papers since the 2018 edition – are expected to attribute human-induced climate change as a major driver of the 2019-20 Australian bushfires, as well as wildfires in California, rising sea temperatures and loss of permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere.

Scientists widely predict that once annual average global temperatures rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level, the world will see a surge in climactic tipping points, resulting in larger and more volatile heatwaves, rising sea levels, melting ice, and droughts that will threaten food supplies and economies around the world.

The world is now estimated to be around two-thirds of the way towards reaching the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold.

According to the World Meteorological Organisation, the average temperature will be at least 1 degree Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels over each of the next five years, with a range of between 0.9 degrees Celsius and 1.8 degrees Celsius.

Despite the efforts of many developed countries, global greenhouse emissions have risen more than 45 per cent between 2000 and 2019, with the Paris Agreement allowing most developing countries to continue increasing emissions until 2030.

Experts and Western leaders warn that keeping the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold alive means pushing countries such as China, India, Indonesia and Brazil to reduce emissions before the end of this decade, a massive challenge that could ultimately derail the Glasgow talks.

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